25 April 2026, 23:27 PM
UPDATED
26 April 2026, 11:54 AM
Representational image. Photo: AFP
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Representational image. Picture: AFP
When the Global Financial Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) database on April 14, one recordsdata point rapid made its manner via monetary markets and newsrooms.
Bangladesh is projected to reveal an even bigger noxious home product per capita than India in 2026, measured in latest US greenbacks. The forecast locations Bangladesh at $2,911 per particular person in opposition to India at $2,812. The adaptation is little in absolute terms, but its symbolism is considerable.
India’s economy, valued at $3,916 billion in 2025, is roughly eight occasions the dimensions of Bangladesh’s $458 billion. Moreover it’s miles one of many most closely watched growth stories in the realm. Yet on this slender measure, the smaller neighbour looks location to edge forward.
The response in India used to be swift. Kaushik Basu, aged chief economist of the World Bank, described the strategy as “shocking”. Indian commentators debated whether the resolve mirrored a deeper structural divergence or merely a statistical quirk.
The resolution, as is so on the total the case with economic recordsdata, is: every.
Measured in latest greenbacks, Bangladesh led India in per capita income for seven years from 2018.
India moved forward in 2025 after the Bangladeshi taka weakened sharply. That is now not without precedent.
Bangladesh used to be also forward of India in per capita GDP between 1989 and 2002.
India then pulled in front for around 15 years sooner than slipping below Bangladesh in 2018.
The rupee’s grasp depreciation in opposition to the dollar in the subsequent duration then swung the comparison encourage.
In accordance with the most contemporary projections, Bangladesh is decided to transfer forward in 2026 by roughly $100 per particular person.
The IMF expects India to score the lead in 2027 and to remain forward a minimum of till 2031.
To treasure why this measure is so unstable, establish in mind the arithmetic.
GDP per capita in latest greenbacks is calculated by changing every nation’s output into US greenbacks at the existing alternate charge.
When a currency depreciates — as every the taka and the rupee possess carried out in latest years, though at various speeds — it compresses the dollar charge of output without reference to how productive the underlying economy has become.
The crossing of the two traces in 2026, viewed on any given cloak, tells us one thing exact: that alternate-charge dynamics now location the two economies’ dollar incomes interior touching distance of every other. It does now not, on its grasp, expose us which inhabitants is .
The 2d measure complicates the image seriously. The IMF also publishes GDP per capita adjusted for procuring energy parity (PPP), which strips out alternate-charge actions and as a substitute converts output correct into a novel “international dollar” in line with what every currency can in actuality aquire domestically.
On this foundation, India leads Bangladesh by a huge margin — and always has in the stylish technology.
In 2025, India’s PPP-adjusted GDP per capita stands at $11,789 — some 15 percent above Bangladesh’s $10,271.
By 2031, the IMF projects the gap will widen to almost 24 percent, with India reaching $18,485 in opposition to Bangladesh’s $14,857.
