Guwahati: The Bharatiya Janata Occasion (BJP) is heading within the unswerving direction to cease a critical hat-trick within the upcoming Assam Assembly elections, securing a third consecutive time duration in energy, primarily based mostly on primarily the most current Tracker Ballotconducted by Of us’s Pulse Research Group.
The peep, implemented from November 15 to December 31, 2025, initiatives the BJP as primarily the most attention-grabbing largest occasion with 69-74 seats within the 126-member Assembly, enabling it to unhealthy the majority tag independently. When combined with its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) companions, the coalition is anticipated to the contact the 90-seat tag, signalling a resounding victory amid a fragmented opposition panorama.
Dr. Rajan Pandey, Political Analyst and Director of Of us’s Pulse Research Group, compiled the picture. “This Tracker Poll captures the pulse of Assam’s electorate at a pivotal moment. The BJP’s performance reflects not just incumbency advantages but a deepening connection with diverse voter groups. With the opposition in disarray, particularly parties like AIUDF and UPPL fighting for survival, the NDA’s path to victory appears clear.”
Per the tracker Indian National Congress (INC), which is slated to gain 25-29 seats. NDA allies, alongside with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) with 8-11 seats and the Bodoland Of us’s Front (BPF) with 8-10 seats, bolster the coalition’s strength. Smaller events face bleak possibilities, the All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is projected at 2 seats, the United Of us’s Occasion Liberal (UPPL) at 2, Raijor Dal at 1 or 2, Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) at one, CPI (M) at 1, and independents/others at 1.
Per the peep this projection positions the NDA smartly above the 64-seat majority threshold, permitting the BJP to construct the authorities on its beget for the third time—a feat mirroring the Congress’s historical three-time duration recede within the speak. The peep attributes this to the BJP’s ability to beget its core vote inappropriate while rising into novel demographics.
On vote shares, the BJP is forecasted to garner 39%, a slim 2% lead over the Congress’s 37%. While slim, this margin is valuable in Assam’s compact electoral panorama, the build even minor shifts can translate into gargantuan seat beneficial properties. A spread of events’ projections embody AGP at 7%, BPF at 5.5%, UPPL at 1.2%, AIUDF at 2.5%, Raijor Dal at 0.9%, AJP at 0.7%, CPI (M) at 0.8%, and others at 5%. The Congress’s vote half elevate stems largely from AIUDF’s erosion, with Muslim voters transferring allegiance as seen within the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. On the opposite hand, factors like delimitation, NDA’s sturdy social alliances, and extinct opposition companions hinder the Congress from converting votes into seats proportionally.
The peep’s Chief Minister Preference ballotshows a carefully contested flee among top contenders. Incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma leads with 30% strengthen, narrowly earlier than extinct Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal at 28%. Congress MP and speak president Gaurav Gogoi follows carefully at 27%, highlighting his inner most appeal despite the occasion’s broader struggles. A spread of figures, alongside with Debabrata Saikia (3%), Hagrama Mohilary (1%), Atul Bora (1%), Dilip Saikia (1%), Badruddin Ajmal (1%), and Akhil Gogoi (1%), path critically, with 7% undecided or preferring others.
The peep added, “While Gaurav Gogoi’s popularity poses a challenge in the CM race, it hasn’t translated into equivalent support for the Congress party. Himanta Biswa Sarma’s lead, though slim, is bolstered by strong backing from women voters, even among tribals, where male preferences lean toward Sonowal.”
The Tracker Ballotdelved into voter perceptions, revealing the NDA’s certain edge across quite a lot of fronts. When requested which occasion is better for Assam’s trend, Forty eight% favoured the BJP in comparison with 38% for Congress. On authorities formation likelihood, 55% predicted a BJP gain versus 40% for Congress. A decisive 55% believed the BJP deserves one other likelihood, in opposition to 45% who disagreed.
The peep highlights the BJP’s uniform lead in parameters like trend, welfare, neighborhood preferences, CM preference, occasion affinity, and demographics across age and gender. This dominance stems from sustained electoral successes since 2021, alongside with wins in self sustaining councils, panchayats, municipalities, by-elections, and the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The NDA has no longer most productive retained its inappropriate but expanded into novel pockets, critically among tribal and OBC communities.
In distinction, the Congress reveals marginal beneficial properties, primarily from AIUDF’s declining Muslim voter inappropriate in Barak Valley and Decrease Assam. AIUDF’s free topple, exacerbated by chief Badruddin Ajmal’s perceived replace interests and controversial alliances, has left it politically isolated. Respondents across Muslim communities viewed Ajmal as self-serving, placing forward Congress because the viable anti-BJP drive. AGP’s dependence on BJP is evident; its inappropriate erodes with out alliance strengthen. UPPL, once an NDA partner, faces existential threats after unhappy showings in most current BTAD elections, with Bodo voters reverting to BPF. The BJP-BPF reconciliation positions the alliance to sweep BTAD regions. Smaller outfits like Raijor Dal and AJP remain static, with restricted pocket influences.
