Mahindra & Mahindra’s newest SUV launches possess kicked off 2026 with a surge of bookings that has Nomura doubling down on the stock as its top automobile decide, at the same time as the brokerage struck a more cautious tone on Bajaj Auto despite a more cost-effective electric scooter aimed at mass customers. The divergent calls replicate the place Nomura sees the clearest cash to be made in India’s auto place, backing Mahindra for growth whereas favouring Ather Energy and TVS Motor over Bajaj in two-wheelers.
Mahindra & Mahindra, Nomura said in a show dated January 14, has seen a “sturdy customer response all the top doubtless plot thru each the ICE and EV portfolios” after the commence of the refreshed XUV 7XO and the all-electric XEV 9S, with the 2 objects collectively clocking 93,689 bookings by 2 pm on January 14, the very first day bookings opened.
Mahindra’s SUV push gathers bustle
“XUV 7X0 and XEV 9S are off to a sturdy originate,” Nomura wrote, adding that the launches “meaningfully give a grab to MM’s positioning in the highest fee SUV place, with aggressive pricing and a materially improved characteristic contrivance supporting request of visibility.”
Mahindra launched the updated XUV 7XO on January 5 at an introductory imprint of Rs 13.66 lakh for the first 40,000 objects, whereas the seven-seater electric XEV 9S used to be launched on November 27 at an introductory imprint of Rs 19.95 lakh. Nomura currently builds in volumes of about 7,500 to 7,800 objects a month for the XUV 7XO in FY26 and FY27, and spherical 3,000 to 4,000 objects a month for the XEV 9S over the medium term.
The brokerage estimates that electric autos fable for about 15% of the mixed give an explanation for guide of the 2 objects, warning that the “sturdy preliminary reserving momentum for each objects items an upside threat to our volume assumptions.”
Nomura expects Mahindra’s SUV volumes to outpace change growth, forecasting growth of about 18%, 11% and 7% over FY26, FY27 and FY28, translating into monthly gross sales of 54,000, 60,000 and 65,000 objects respectively. That outlook involves battery electric automobile gross sales of 4,400 objects a month in FY26, rising to 7,400 in FY27 and 7,900 in FY28.
The brokerage reiterated its Aquire ranking on Mahindra & Mahindra with a goal imprint of Rs 4,355, in contrast with a closing imprint of Rs 3,650 on January 14.
Bajaj cuts EV entry imprint, Nomura stays neutral
In inequity, Nomura remained on the sidelines on Bajaj Auto after the corporate unveiled the Chetak C25 electric scooter at an introductory imprint of Rs 91,400, its lowest-priced Chetak but.
The original variant, which sits under the reward 30 and 35 series, is aimed squarely at imprint-acutely conscious and first-time EV customers. It is powered by a 2.5 kWh battery with a claimed vary of 113 km, a top bustle of 55 kmph and a charging time of 2 hours 25 minutes for a 0-80% price.
Nomura said the commence “lowers the entry imprint point within the Chetak portfolio, expanding Bajaj’s addressable market in the electric scooter section,” adding that the mannequin is “positioned to cater to price-acutely conscious and first-time EV customers, balancing affordability with core capabilities.”
Composed, the brokerage flagged that capabilities and boot place were trimmed in contrast with elevated-cease Chetak variants, though it believes the scooter remains “ample for day-to-day commute utilize, with decent vary and charging time for its section.”
Nomura is modelling overall volume growth of 10%, 9% and 6% for Bajaj Auto over FY26, FY27 and FY28, with EBITDA margins of 20.9%, 21.8% and 21.7% respectively. It sees enchancment in domestic market fragment as a doable catalyst for re-ranking however said the stock is already procuring and selling at about 21.4 times core FY28 earnings.
The brokerage maintained its Fair ranking on Bajaj Auto with a goal imprint of Rs 9,814, implying an upside of true 2.4% from Wednesday’s closing imprint of Rs 9,580.
“Ather (ATHERENE IN, Aquire) and TVS (TVSL IN, Aquire) proceed to be our most traditional picks in the 2W place,” Nomura said, highlighting its glance that whereas Bajaj’s EV push broadens its reach, the sharper upside, for now, lies in diversified places.
(Disclaimer: Ideas, ideas, views and opinions given by the experts are their very possess. These fabricate no longer represent the views of the Financial Instances)
